SpaceX has gone from being one of the hottest IPOs in history to one of the market’s biggest debates in just a few weeks.
The stock has fallen nearly 50% from its peak, investors are questioning whether the sell-off has gone too far, and some of Wall Street’s biggest names are saying one thing.
Don’t rush.
Even Jim Cramer, who remains positive on SpaceX over the long term, is telling investors to be patient.
The reason has very little to do with rockets.
It has everything to do with timing.
The Biggest Event Isn’t Earnings
Most companies see earnings as their biggest event of the quarter.
For SpaceX, earnings may not be the main story.
The company is scheduled to report its first quarterly results as a public company on August 4. Just two days later, on August 6, one of the largest lock-up expirations in recent history takes place.
That single event could completely change the supply and demand equation for the stock.
What Is a Lock-Up Expiration?
When a company goes public, early investors, employees, and insiders usually cannot sell their shares immediately.
This restriction is called a lock-up period.
Once that period ends, these shareholders become free to sell their holdings in the open market.
For SpaceX, that is a massive event.
Around 911.5 million shares, representing roughly 20% of eligible locked-up holdings, could become available for sale.
That would more than double the number of shares available for public trading.
More supply does not automatically mean prices will fall.
But historically, a sudden increase in supply often creates selling pressure, especially if some early investors decide to lock in profits.
Jim Cramer’s Advice Is Surprisingly Simple
Jim Cramer is not telling investors to avoid SpaceX.
He is simply suggesting patience.
His view is straightforward.
If someone wants to build a long-term position, buying after the first wave of insider selling may offer a better opportunity than buying immediately before millions of shares hit the market.
His argument is based on basic market mechanics.
When more shares become available, prices often face pressure until supply and demand find a new balance.
That does not mean the business has changed overnight.
It simply means the stock could experience additional volatility.
The Stock Has Already Had a Wild Ride
SpaceX’s public market journey has been dramatic.
The timeline so far:
- IPO priced at $135
- Opened around $150
- Climbed to an all-time high of $225.64 within days
- Has since fallen to around $112, wiping out roughly half its peak value
At its highest point, the company’s valuation briefly crossed $3 trillion.
Today, it is closer to $1.5 trillion.
That represents one of the largest value declines seen so soon after a major IPO.
Can Strong Earnings Change Everything?
Possibly.
But maybe not immediately.
Analysts expect quarterly revenue of roughly $6.8 billion, while the company is still expected to report another loss.
Investors will likely focus on several important areas.
Key things the market will watch:
- Starlink subscriber growth
- Progress in the AI business
- Updates on Starship development
- Management’s outlook for future growth
Even if these numbers impress investors, many believe the lock-up expiration could still dominate trading during the following days.
That is exactly why some analysts are choosing to wait.
The Business Still Has Huge Long-Term Potential
Despite the recent sell-off, very few people are arguing that SpaceX lacks ambition.
The company continues to build businesses across several major industries.
Its biggest growth engines include:
- Satellite internet through Starlink
- Reusable launch services
- Starship and deep-space transportation
- Artificial intelligence infrastructure
Supporters believe these businesses could become enormous over the next decade.
The debate today is not about whether SpaceX is an important company.
It is about whether the current stock price has fully adjusted to near-term risks.
Wall Street Is Deeply Divided
Analysts are looking at the same company but reaching very different conclusions.
Some remain extremely bullish, believing the recent decline has created a buying opportunity.
Others argue the combination of insider selling, ongoing losses, and elevated short interest could keep the stock under pressure for longer.
That wide range of opinions explains why investors are seeing so much volatility.
Should Investors Buy the Dip?
There is no simple answer.
Buying after a large correction can sometimes produce excellent long-term returns.
But buying before a major increase in share supply can also lead to additional short-term pain.
That is why experienced investors are watching the calendar just as closely as they are watching the earnings report.
Sometimes the best investment decision is not choosing what to buy.
It is deciding when to buy.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX remains one of the world’s most closely watched companies.
Its long-term story around space technology, satellite connectivity, and AI continues to attract believers.
But the next few days could be unusually important.
First comes earnings.
Then comes one of the biggest insider share unlocks the market has seen in years.
Whether the stock stabilizes or falls further will likely depend not only on how the business performs, but also on how many early investors decide it is finally time to sell.
For long-term investors, August could provide much more clarity than July ever did.