SpaceX has spent years being one of the world’s most valuable private companies. Now, just weeks after its historic IPO, investors are about to get their first real test of whether the public market agrees with that valuation.
The next few days could shape how investors think about not just SpaceX, but late-stage private companies in general.
A Crucial 48 Hours for SpaceX
Two major events are lined up almost back-to-back:
- August 4: SpaceX will release its first quarterly earnings as a listed company.
- August 6: Around 911.5 million shares, worth roughly $116 billion at current prices, become eligible for sale as the IPO lock-up period partially expires.
There is also another 455.8 million shares that could become eligible later if certain conditions are met. Elon Musk and a small group of insiders remain locked up until mid-2027, meaning they cannot sell their holdings yet.
This creates an interesting situation.
Investors will get fresh financial results and then have only 48 hours before a massive amount of stock can potentially hit the market.
The Stock Is Already Below Its IPO Price
SpaceX listed at $135 per share, but the stock has struggled since listing.
It recently traded around $113.50, roughly 16% below its IPO price, after touching a post-listing low of $110.85.
That means investors who bought during the IPO are currently sitting on losses, while many early private investors had opportunities to exit at higher valuations before the company went public.
This is exactly why the upcoming lock-up expiry matters.
Will Investors Hold or Sell?
The biggest question is not simply whether SpaceX’s share price rises or falls after August 6.
The more important signal is:
- Who decides to sell
- How much stock comes into the market
- Whether early investors still believe in the long-term story
If very few investors sell despite having the opportunity, the market may interpret that as confidence in SpaceX’s future.
If selling pressure is heavy, it could suggest that many investors simply wanted liquidity after waiting years.
For private market investors, this behaviour often reveals more than a single day’s share price movement.
What This Means Beyond SpaceX
Every private company eventually faces the same question.
Does the public market agree with the valuation investors gave it while it was private?
SpaceX is now becoming one of the biggest real-world tests of that question.
For years, investors assumed that an IPO would validate years of rising private valuations.
Recent history suggests that assumption is no longer guaranteed.
Shein Shows the Opposite Problem
SpaceX isn’t the only company highlighting this trend.
Fast-fashion giant Shein is reportedly preparing for a Hong Kong listing at a valuation between $40 billion and $50 billion.
That is dramatically lower than its reported $98.2 billion private valuation in 2022.
The businesses are completely different, but both illustrate the same lesson.
A private valuation is simply what investors agreed to pay during a funding round.
The public market may value the company very differently once shares begin trading freely.
Another AI Valuation Raising Questions
Away from SpaceX, another headline caught investors’ attention.
Reports suggest Nvidia has committed around $5 billion to Safe Superintelligence (SSI), the AI company founded by former OpenAI chief scientist Ilya Sutskever.
SSI reportedly carries a valuation of around $32 billion despite not having launched a commercial product yet.
Alongside the investment, Nvidia is also expected to provide access to its next-generation Vera Rubin AI systems, significantly increasing the company’s computing capacity.
Why The Investor Matters
The interesting part isn’t just the valuation.
It’s who is helping create it.
When a traditional venture capital firm invests, it is mainly expressing confidence in the company’s future.
When a company like Nvidia invests while also supplying critical AI chips and infrastructure, the situation becomes more complicated.
The valuation may partly reflect:
- Commercial agreements
- Long-term hardware supply
- Strategic partnerships
- Preferential access to computing power
That means future investors may not receive the same benefits attached to that funding round.
Headline valuations don’t always tell the complete story.
Recent IPOs Tell A Mixed Story
According to Forge’s latest IPO data:
- Only 7 out of 20 companies that listed since early 2025 were trading above their IPO price through Q2 2026.
- Forge estimates the current technology IPO pipeline at roughly $2.1 trillion in combined valuation.
One of the biggest examples is Figma.
The company priced its IPO at $33, surged to $115.50 on its first trading day, but later traded around $18.09.
It highlights how IPO excitement doesn’t always translate into long-term market performance.
Other Private Market Developments Investors Are Watching
Several other developments are shaping the private market landscape:
- DeepSeek reportedly paused its second fundraising round after comments made privately by its founder became public, highlighting how founder communication can influence investor confidence.
- Chinese memory chipmaker CXMT surged 466% on its Shanghai debut, reaching a market capitalisation of roughly $487 billion.
- Multiverse Computing raised $570 million at a $1.7 billion valuation to expand technology that compresses AI models and reduces inference costs.
- Nuclear startup Antares secured $370 million in equity and $100 million in debt financing to develop compact reactors for US military bases.
- EquipmentShare is facing securities class action lawsuits alleging certain related-party transactions were not properly disclosed before its IPO. These remain allegations that have not been proven in court.
Understanding The Lock-Up Period
Many investors hear that a lock-up period is ending and assume every insider can immediately sell.
That isn’t always true.
Companies often use staggered lock-up releases, where shares become eligible for sale in phases rather than all at once.
These releases can depend on:
- Specific calendar dates
- Earnings announcements
- Share price targets
- Trading milestones
SpaceX follows this staggered approach, meaning share supply will increase gradually rather than arriving all on a single day.
The Bigger Picture
The coming week is about much more than SpaceX’s quarterly earnings.
It is a real-world test of how today’s public markets value companies that spent years building enormous private valuations.
At the same time, Nvidia’s investment in Safe Superintelligence raises fresh questions about how strategic partnerships influence AI startup valuations.
Together, these stories reinforce an important lesson for investors.
A private valuation is only one opinion. The public market eventually decides what a company is actually worth, and sometimes that answer is very different.