SpaceX is entering one of its most important phases yet. While the company remains the undisputed leader in commercial space launches, investors are beginning to ask a tougher question: Can Starship successfully replace Falcon, the rocket that built SpaceX’s business?
That question is taking centre stage ahead of Starship Flight 13, a mission that could shape investor sentiment after the company’s recent stock market struggles.
Stock Under Pressure
SpaceX shares have been under heavy selling pressure in recent weeks.
Here’s where things stand:
- The stock fell 2.7% on Friday.
- It closed at $115.07, its lowest level since listing.
- The stock has declined roughly 25% since its June IPO.
- It is now around 13% below its IPO price of $135.
The weakness reflects growing caution rather than a sudden deterioration in SpaceX’s core business.
Investors continue to believe in the company’s long-term leadership in space launches, but many are becoming more focused on execution risks surrounding Starship.
A Major Strategic Shift Is Underway
According to reports, SpaceX has started preparing for a future where Starship becomes its primary launch vehicle.
The company has reportedly:
- Stopped accepting dedicated Falcon 9 launch bookings beyond 2028.
- Paused future reservations for Falcon rideshare missions.
- Scaled back production of certain non-reusable Falcon components, including upper stages.
This is a significant strategic move.
Falcon 9 has been one of the most successful rockets ever built. It generates steady commercial revenue through satellite launches, cargo missions and government contracts.
By gradually reducing future Falcon commitments, SpaceX is signalling that it wants customers to transition towards Starship.
Why This Is Such a Big Bet
The challenge is that Starship is still under development.
Unlike Falcon, Starship has not yet demonstrated consistent operational reliability.
The previous launch attempt was scrubbed after several engines failed to ignite before liftoff.
That means SpaceX is effectively shifting attention away from a proven business toward a platform that still has several technical milestones left to achieve.
It reflects the company’s long-term confidence, but it also increases execution risk.
What Flight 13 Needs to Achieve
Tonight’s mission is much more than another test flight.
Engineers will closely watch whether Starship can successfully complete several key objectives:
- Successful booster launch
- Clean stage separation
- Booster return to its offshore landing point in the Gulf of Mexico
- Deployment of 20 Starlink V3 satellites
- Controlled re-entry and splashdown in the Indian Ocean
Every successful milestone helps build confidence that Starship is moving closer to commercial operations.
What Analysts Are Watching
Interestingly, analysts are looking beyond whether the rocket simply reaches space.
One of the biggest questions involves economics rather than engineering.
Starship’s promise depends on full reusability.
That means investors want answers to questions such as:
- How much refurbishment is required after re-entry?
- How quickly can the vehicle be prepared for another flight?
- Will refurbishment costs remain low enough to support profitable operations?
If turnaround times remain lengthy or expensive, Starship’s commercial advantages become less compelling.
Wall Street Remains Cautiously Optimistic
Most analysts continue to believe SpaceX has enormous long-term potential.
However, they are also reminding investors that developing an entirely new launch system will not be a smooth journey.
JPMorgan recently noted that Starship’s development will likely involve both progress and setbacks as the company works towards much higher launch frequencies over the coming years.
That reflects the reality of building next-generation aerospace technology.
Success is unlikely to come in a straight line.
HSBC Takes A More Conservative View
HSBC recently initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Hold rating and a $115 price target, suggesting limited upside from current levels.
The bank acknowledged several strengths:
- SpaceX remains the leader in commercial launch services.
- Its technological capabilities remain well ahead of competitors.
- Demand for launch services continues to grow.
However, HSBC believes investors may be assigning too much value to long-term opportunities that remain uncertain today.
These include:
- Space-based data centres
- Future lunar economy opportunities
- Large-scale manufacturing projects in space
The bank argues that while these ideas are exciting, they are still several years away from becoming meaningful businesses.
The Falcon Business Still Matters
Although SpaceX appears focused on Starship, Falcon is unlikely to disappear overnight.
The company is expected to continue flying Falcon missions for:
- NASA
- The US Department of Defense
- Existing commercial customers
This means Falcon will continue generating revenue even as Starship development progresses.
The transition is expected to happen gradually rather than immediately.
Why Investors Are Watching So Closely
Starship represents far more than another rocket.
It is central to SpaceX’s long-term ambitions.
If Starship eventually becomes fully reusable and capable of frequent launches, it could dramatically lower the cost of reaching space while unlocking new commercial opportunities.
However, until that vision becomes reality, investors are likely to remain focused on execution.
Every successful test flight builds confidence.
Every delay or technical issue raises fresh questions.
The Bottom Line
SpaceX is asking investors to look beyond today’s business and believe in tomorrow’s.
The company is gradually shifting away from its highly successful Falcon programme while betting that Starship will become the foundation of its next decade of growth.
That is an ambitious strategy, but also one that carries significant execution risk.
Tonight’s Flight 13 will not determine Starship’s future on its own. However, it will provide one of the clearest indications yet of whether SpaceX is moving closer to making its biggest vision a commercial reality.
For investors, the launch is about much more than a rocket leaving the ground. It is another important checkpoint in assessing whether SpaceX can successfully transition from the business that made it a leader to the technology it hopes will define its future.