BONDS CATCH A BREATHER
The global bond selloff showed signs of easing as oil prices pulled back and stocks found some footing.
• US 10Y yield slipped to 5.19% after jumping more than 20 bps in two sessions
• 2Y yield fell to 4.91%
• Brent crude dropped 0.9% to ~$105.60
• Gold held near $4,270
• Japan’s Topix gained 1.2%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 1.7%
OIL & IRAN IN FOCUS
Oil prices eased after reports that the US and Iran are exploring a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and ease restrictions on Iranian ports.
But energy prices remain elevated, keeping inflation and Fed rate-hike expectations firmly in focus.
RATES STILL THE BIG STORY
Markets are now pricing in three more 25 bps Fed hikes over the next year.
With the 30Y Treasury yield at its highest since 2004, higher borrowing costs could increasingly pressure consumers, businesses and equity valuations.
CORPORATE MOVES
• Anthropic: $11.6B, seven-year computing deal with Akamai
• Oracle: Seeking protection from rising costs on a massive New Mexico data center
• Paramount Skydance: Targeting a $52B debt sale to fund its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover
WHAT TO WATCH
Oil, Treasury yields, inflation expectations and geopolitical risks remain the key market drivers.
For investors, the big question is whether this is simply a pause in the bond selloff or the start of a more lasting stabilization.