For the last few years, investors have been asking the same question:
When will the IPO market come back?
This week may have provided the strongest signal yet that the answer is finally changing.
Within just a few days, SpaceX filed publicly for an IPO, while Oura and Blockchain.com submitted confidential filings. Reports also suggest that OpenAI is preparing its own confidential filing, potentially setting up one of the most anticipated public offerings in history.
Taken individually, each filing is significant.
Taken together, they could represent the beginning of a major shift in capital markets.
Why Everyone Is Watching SpaceX
The headline-grabber is obviously SpaceX.
According to reports, the company is targeting a valuation between $1.75 trillion and $2 trillion, with plans to raise approximately $75 billion.
If that happens, it would become the largest IPO ever recorded.
The numbers are staggering:
- Roughly $19 billion in 2025 revenue
- About $5 billion in operating losses
- More than 70% of revenue coming from Starlink
- Elon Musk retaining roughly 85% voting control
What’s particularly interesting is that SpaceX is no longer just a space company.
Its business now combines:
- Satellite internet
- Launch services
- Space infrastructure
- AI exposure through xAI integration
Investors are essentially being asked to value a company that sits at the intersection of several of the market’s most popular themes.
The real question is not whether investors are interested.
The question is whether public markets can absorb a deal of this size without disrupting demand for everything else waiting behind it.
OpenAI Could Be Next
Reports suggest OpenAI may file confidentially soon, potentially targeting a public listing later this year.
If that happens, markets could see more than $100 billion of new issuance from just two companies within a matter of months.
That comparison matters.
The entire 2021 IPO boom, which included dozens of technology listings, raised roughly the same amount combined.
This time, two companies alone could match that figure.
That creates an interesting test:
Are investors eager to buy growth stories at any size, or is demand concentrated in only a handful of elite companies?
The answer could determine whether dozens of private companies move forward with IPO plans or stay on the sidelines.
Anthropic Just Changed the AI Conversation
While IPO headlines dominated attention, another announcement may have been even more important.
Anthropic reportedly told investors it expects:
- $10.9 billion in Q2 revenue
- $559 million in operating profit
If achieved, it would mark the company’s first profitable quarter.
That is a remarkable turnaround.
Only last year, expectations suggested profitability was still years away.
Why does this matter?
Because AI companies have largely been valued based on future potential rather than current profits.
Anthropic’s projections introduce a new variable:
What if some AI labs become profitable much sooner than expected?
Investors now have a rare opportunity to compare two leading AI companies:
Anthropic
- Growing rapidly
- Potentially profitable
- Secondary market valuations rising
OpenAI
- Larger revenue base
- Massive growth
- Significant ongoing losses
- Higher valuation expectations
For the first time, investors can start debating AI companies using actual operating performance rather than purely theoretical future outcomes.
That could reshape how the entire sector is valued.
Cursor May Be the Most Interesting Story Nobody Is Talking About
Another notable development came from Cursor.
According to recent reports, Cursor has reached approximately $3 billion in annualized revenue, up dramatically from earlier this year.
The company also reportedly has:
- More than 3,000 customers paying at least $100,000 annually
- Strong enterprise adoption
- A reported valuation around $50 billion
What makes Cursor particularly interesting is where it sits in the AI ecosystem.
Unlike Anthropic or OpenAI, Cursor doesn’t build foundation models.
Instead, it builds tools on top of them.
For years, skeptics argued that AI application companies would struggle because model providers would capture most of the value.
Cursor’s growth suggests the story may be more complicated.
Developers appear willing to pay substantial amounts for products that make AI genuinely useful in their workflows.
That could have implications far beyond coding tools.
It raises a broader question:
Will the biggest winners in AI ultimately be the model builders or the companies building practical products on top of those models?
The Bigger Question: Is This a Broad IPO Recovery or a Narrow AI Trade?
This may be the most important takeaway from everything happening right now.
If:
- SpaceX prices successfully
- Oura prices successfully
- Blockchain.com moves forward
- OpenAI follows through
Then the market is signaling that risk appetite has returned across multiple sectors.
But if only the largest AI-related names succeed while smaller companies struggle, the message is very different.
That would suggest investors are not embracing IPOs broadly.
They’re simply chasing a small group of perceived category leaders.
The next few months should provide a very clear answer.
Why Investors Should Pay Attention
Even if you have no intention of buying any of these IPOs, they matter.
Large public offerings often reveal:
- Investor risk appetite
- Capital market strength
- Valuation expectations
- Sentiment toward growth companies
- The direction of future fundraising activity
Successful IPOs tend to encourage more companies to list.
Weak IPOs often shut the window quickly.
That is why investors across public and private markets will be watching closely.
The outcome won’t just affect SpaceX or OpenAI.
It could influence hundreds of private companies considering whether now is finally the right time to enter public markets.