The robotaxi race is usually framed as a battle between Tesla and Waymo. But one investor thinks the company with the best chance of bringing autonomous ride-hailing to the masses could be a very different name: Uber.
Gary Black of The Future Fund argues that Uber has a major advantage because it does not need to build every part of the autonomous driving ecosystem itself.
That could turn out to be a much bigger advantage than it sounds.
The bet is on the platform, not the car
Black’s argument comes down to one thing: Uber’s open supplier model.
Instead of betting on a single autonomous driving technology, Uber can potentially work with multiple companies developing self-driving systems and put those vehicles onto its existing ride-hailing network.
That creates an interesting distinction.
Tesla and Waymo are primarily trying to solve autonomous driving. Uber is trying to solve autonomous mobility at scale.
The difference matters.
A robotaxi needs more than a car that can drive itself. It needs customers, drivers or fleet operators, pricing, payments, geographic coverage, routing, customer support and enough vehicles to make the service useful.
Uber already has much of that infrastructure.
Why Uber’s model could be difficult to ignore
Uber has spent years building a global network connecting riders with drivers. If autonomous vehicles become reliable and commercially viable, the company could potentially plug those vehicles into an ecosystem that already has millions of users.
That gives Uber an interesting position in the race.
Rather than asking, “Whose self-driving car will win?”
Investors may eventually need to ask:
“Who can put autonomous vehicles into the hands of the most customers?”
That’s where Uber’s strategy starts to look compelling.
Black compared the situation to Blockbuster and Netflix, arguing that Uber is not simply waiting for autonomous technology to replace its existing business. Instead, it is positioning itself to work with different technology providers as the market develops.
Uber is already moving toward autonomous rides
The company is not treating robotaxis as a distant idea.
During its second-quarter 2026 earnings call, Uber said it was on track to begin autonomous ride-hailing operations in 15 cities by the end of the year.
The company also expects autonomous services to expand further over the next few years.
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi said the company expects Nvidia-backed robotaxis to launch in Los Angeles and San Francisco next year, with the broader goal of reaching 28 cities globally by 2028.
Uber also expects Rivian robotaxis to potentially reach San Francisco and Miami in 2028.
The strategy is clear: work with multiple autonomous vehicle partners rather than depend on one technology.
The numbers give Uber another reason to watch
Uber’s second-quarter results showed that the core business is still generating significant scale.
The company reported:
- $14.19 billion in revenue
- 12% year-over-year revenue growth
- 81 cents in adjusted EPS, in line with analyst expectations
- $1.89 billion in GAAP operating income
- Operating income increased 30% year over year
Revenue came in slightly below the $14.24 billion analyst estimate, but the business continues to generate substantial cash and operating scale while investing in its next phase.
That matters because autonomous mobility is unlikely to become a major business overnight.
Uber has the existing customer base and infrastructure to potentially build the business gradually as autonomous vehicles become available.
Tesla and Waymo still have major advantages
That does not mean Uber has already won.
Waymo has a significant head start in deploying autonomous ride-hailing technology, while Tesla has a huge vehicle fleet, a massive consumer base and an aggressive approach to autonomous driving.
Tesla also has the advantage of controlling much more of its technology stack.
Uber’s strategy is different.
It is effectively saying: we don’t necessarily need to build the winning autonomous vehicle if we can build the winning network for those vehicles.
That makes Uber’s robotaxi thesis less about engineering and more about distribution.
And in platform businesses, distribution can be incredibly powerful.
The real question is who controls the customer
Imagine autonomous vehicles eventually become widely available from several manufacturers and technology providers.
If customers continue opening the same app to book a ride, the company controlling that customer relationship could have significant leverage.
That’s the opportunity Uber is chasing.
The company could potentially become the marketplace connecting passengers with a range of autonomous fleets, while continuing to operate its traditional ride-hailing business alongside them.
In that scenario, Uber does not have to pick a single winner.
It could potentially benefit from several winners.
But there are still plenty of risks
The biggest question is whether autonomous vehicles can scale as quickly as the industry expects.
Technical progress is only one part of the equation. Regulation, safety standards, insurance, vehicle costs, charging infrastructure and consumer trust will all influence how quickly robotaxis can expand.
There is also competition.
If Tesla, Waymo or another player develops a strong direct relationship with consumers, Uber’s platform advantage could become less important.
And if autonomous fleets eventually become cheaper and more widely available, competitors could potentially build their own marketplaces.
So Uber’s position is promising, but it is far from guaranteed.
The bigger investment debate
The most interesting part of the robotaxi race may not be which company builds the best autonomous car.
It could be about who owns the ecosystem around the car.
Tesla has the vehicles and technology.
Waymo has years of autonomous driving development and deployment.
Uber has something different: a huge mobility marketplace and an open approach to autonomous vehicle suppliers.
That makes Uber an unusual way to participate in the robotaxi opportunity.
Instead of betting on one autonomous driving technology, investors are effectively betting on the idea that multiple autonomous vehicle companies can succeed while Uber becomes the platform connecting them to customers.
Whether that strategy wins will depend on how the autonomous market develops.
But one thing is becoming increasingly clear:
The robotaxi race is no longer just about who can build a self-driving car. It’s about who can turn autonomous driving into a mass-market transportation business.
And that puts Uber firmly in the conversation.