SpaceX has never been a company that inspires small predictions. But this latest forecast from Raymond James analyst Brian Gesuale has taken optimism to a completely different level.
The analyst has initiated coverage on SpaceX with a Strong Buy rating and an $800 price target, the highest on Wall Street today. If that target is achieved, SpaceX’s market value would rise to roughly $10.5 trillion, making it more than twice the size of Nvidia, which is currently the world’s most valuable listed company.
It’s a bold call. But it also comes with equally bold assumptions.
The Bull Case in One Number: $10.5 Trillion
SpaceX is currently valued at less than $2 trillion.
Gesuale believes the company could increase its value more than fivefold over the coming years.
His thesis is simple:
- SpaceX is evolving beyond a space company.
- Artificial intelligence could become its biggest business.
- Compute infrastructure, not rockets, may drive its future.
He describes SpaceX as one of the defining industrial infrastructure companies of this century, comparing its long-term importance to railroads, electric grids and the internet.
The Biggest Surprise: AI, Not Rockets
Most investors associate SpaceX with:
- Starship
- Falcon rockets
- Starlink satellite internet
- Space exploration
But Raymond James believes these businesses may eventually become secondary.
According to the firm’s projections:
- SpaceX generated around $19 billion in revenue last year.
- By 2035, revenue could reach $5.2 trillion.
- Nearly 94% of that revenue could come from AI.
That means AI alone would contribute roughly $4.9 trillion in annual revenue by 2035.
How Does SpaceX Get There?
The forecast assumes SpaceX shifts toward becoming a massive provider of AI computing power.
Instead of relying mainly on launch services and satellite internet, the company would increasingly monetize computing infrastructure.
The expected roadmap looks like this:
- Expand large-scale AI compute capacity on Earth.
- Gradually move portions of that compute infrastructure into orbit.
- Use Starship and future space infrastructure to support orbital AI operations.
- Build an entirely new revenue stream around AI computing.
Under this scenario, AI becomes SpaceX’s largest business as early as 2027.
Not Everyone Is Buying the Story
While Wall Street is largely optimistic on SpaceX, Gesuale’s valuation is still far more aggressive than everyone else’s.
Among analysts covering the stock:
- 29 out of 35 currently have Buy ratings.
- The average price target is around $236, implying roughly 56% upside from current levels.
- Gesuale’s $800 target is nearly double the next highest estimate.
That makes his forecast an outlier, even among SpaceX bulls.
The Risks Are Real
The report also highlights meaningful downside risks.
If SpaceX were to experience major launch failures or delays, investor confidence could weaken significantly.
Gesuale estimates the stock could fall to around $125 in a bearish scenario.
Launch setbacks could also delay:
- Expansion of orbital AI infrastructure.
- Starlink Mobile growth.
- Starship deployment.
- New commercial opportunities tied to future space infrastructure.
In other words, the valuation depends not only on AI adoption but also on flawless execution across SpaceX’s existing businesses.
What This Means for Investors
The report reflects a broader shift happening across markets.
Companies are increasingly being valued not just for what they do today, but for the infrastructure they could own in the AI economy.
For SpaceX, that means investors are beginning to look beyond rockets and satellites.
The real debate is no longer whether SpaceX can dominate space.
It’s whether it can also become one of the world’s largest AI infrastructure companies.
If Raymond James is even partially right, SpaceX’s future could look very different from the business investors know today.
If those assumptions prove too optimistic, however, the gap between expectations and reality could be enormous.
One thing is certain: this is now one of the most ambitious forecasts currently on Wall Street, and it has given investors plenty to debate.