The story is not over.
Warner Bros. Discovery Inc. is weighing whether to reopen talks with Paramount Skydance Corp. even though it already signed a binding deal with Netflix Inc…
That alone tells you something has shifted.
Let’s break this down together.
Where Things Stand Right Now
Warner agreed to sell its studio and HBO Max business to Netflix at $27.75 per share.
Paramount came in with a $30 per share tender offer and has now amended its terms to make the deal more attractive.
Here’s what Paramount changed:
• Will cover the $2.8 billion breakup fee owed to Netflix
• Offering to backstop Warner’s debt refinancing
• Promising shareholder compensation if the deal does not close by Dec 31
That last point is important. It signals confidence about regulatory approval.
Now the Warner board is debating whether Paramount could actually deliver a superior deal.
That opens the door to something bigger.
Could This Trigger A Second Bidding War?
Both sides have hinted they are not done.
Paramount CEO David Ellison has said this is not his final bid.
Netflix leadership has told shareholders it could raise its offer if needed.
If Warner re engages with Paramount:
• Netflix must be notified
• Paramount would likely need to raise above $30
• Netflix would get a right to match
That sets up a potential bidding war.
But here’s the tension.
Netflix stock has fallen more than 40 percent from its June peak as investors worry about overpaying. Neither side wants to stretch too far.
So the question becomes strategic.
Who blinks first?
Shareholder Pressure Is Growing
Some investors are openly pushing Warner’s board to at least engage with Paramount.
Notably:
• Pentwater Capital Management
• Ancora Holdings Group
But here’s the twist.
So far, only about 2 percent of outstanding shares have been tendered to Paramount.
That suggests interest, but not conviction.
Is that because investors believe Netflix will raise?
Or because they think regulators complicate everything anyway?
The Bigger Strategic Question
This is not just about price.
It is about:
• Regulatory risk
• Long term streaming growth
• Debt load and balance sheet strength
• Who can extract more value from Warner’s IP
Paramount is trying to get creative on structure.
Netflix is betting on certainty and speed.
Warner’s board now faces a classic dilemma:
Stick with a signed deal.
Or test the market and potentially unlock more value.