Shutdown Signed!

Feels like markets cheered the headline but i am trying to understand if anything fundamental changed. Government reopens, data flow normalizes and we probably get the usual Treasury bill/coupon issuance to refill the coffers. If that nudges yields up again, does the relief rally fade?

On the flip side, less uncertainty + cleaner CPI/earnings reads might be enough to keep risk on. I’m torn between “nice sugar high” vs “real catalyst.” If anyone has a simple way to think about the Treasury supply → yields → multiples chain, would love a sanity check. Not advice. Just trying to not overthink a green candle.

Treasury supply tweaks sentiment, not the cycle. Yields rise only if term premia or growth expectations shift. Neither moved. This looks more like positioning relief than a new regime. Use the candle as a data point, not a signal.