In November 2024, India’s reported gold imports surged to a record $14.8 billion, more than doubling from $7.13 billion in October. This significant increase contributed to the merchandise trade deficit widening to an unprecedented $37.84 billion, far exceeding economists’ forecasts.
The expanded trade deficit exerted downward pressure on the Indian rupee, which depreciated to a record low of 85.10 against the U.S. dollar. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) likely intervened to support the currency by supplying dollars through state-run banks.
Investigations revealed that the reported surge in gold imports may have been due to a double-counting error following recent methodological changes. Estimates suggest that gold imports could have been overestimated by up to 50 tons, nearly 30% of the total imports for that month.
India’s Directorate General of Commercial Intelligence and Statistics is conducting a detailed examination and reconciliation of the data.
