Here are the headline numbers:
- Net income down 34% to $605M
- Revenue at $1.28B, slightly below expectations
- Crypto trading revenue down 38% as Bitcoin corrected
This clearly shows how sensitive the business still is to crypto cycles. When Bitcoin falls, retail trading activity slows. And because Robinhood earns from that activity, revenue drops almost immediately.
But here’s where things get interesting.
Prediction markets are now its fastest-growing segment.
Over 12 billion event contracts were traded last year. Management is calling this the start of a potential “supercycle.” That is a bold statement.
This is a strategic shift. Instead of relying heavily on crypto volatility, Robinhood is trying to build new engines around event contracts and derivatives. Essentially moving from a stock and crypto app to a broader speculation platform.
Do you see prediction markets becoming a serious long-term pillar for Robinhood, or will crypto always remain the main driver?
Curious to hear how you all see this evolving.