LLY just became the first healthcare company to hit a $1T valuation, riding the Zepbound and Mounjaro wave. They’re up 36% YTD and seem to be beating Novo Nordisk at their own game. To see a pharma giant trading like Big Tech is wild.
It’s trading at ~55x forward earnings, which is insane for a company that faces a patent cliff eventually.
We are pricing this as if they will have zero competition forever but Roche, Amgen and Pfizer are all gunning for this space.
Plus government price controls on Medicare are a huge looming risk.
Sir, you might be overthinking the risks here. Patents are safe until 2036 and competitors like Amgen are still years away from approval. Medicare price controls actually help by opening the floodgates for volume.
Fair enough. It just feels like the market is pricing in best-case scenarios for everything right now. Guess we’ll see who’s right in a couple of quarters 