Cathie Wood hasn’t sold a single Tesla share from ARKK. Still sees a $2,600 price target. Here’s the full picture.
So this just happened — despite a brutal ~30% YTD drop, Cathie Wood says ARKK has never sold a single share of Tesla. She’s still going full throttle on Tesla being a dominant player in the autonomous future. Not the EV future — the autonomous robotaxi future.
She’s even repeating that same wild target: $2,600/share by 2029, which would make Tesla a multi-trillion dollar company. Sounds crazy? Maybe. But her reasoning is worth unpacking.
I did a deep dive on this, especially from the lens of a long-term investor. Here’s what you need to know:
1. ARKK still holds Tesla as its largest position — despite the plunge
Cathie confirmed this week that Tesla is still the top holding in ARKK. It’s currently around 10% of the fund’s $5.8B AUM. That’s down from ~16% last year, but the reduction was mainly due to the stock’s decline, not liquidation.
She did sell some Tesla in other ARK funds (like ARKQ and ARKW), mostly for risk rebalancing, but ARKK — their flagship innovation fund — has held steady.
Her quote: “We’ve never sold a share of Tesla in our flagship fund.”
2. The thesis is no longer about cars. It’s about robotaxis and software margins
If you’re looking at Tesla as “just another car company,” Cathie thinks you’re doing it wrong.
ARK’s entire model is now based on Tesla transitioning from hardware (cars) to software (autonomous systems). In their view, once Tesla cracks autonomy, they’ll launch a ride-hailing network with software-like margins — and that’s where the exponential value kicks in.
According to ARK’s model, 90% of Tesla’s future enterprise value will come from robotaxis, not EV sales.
Is that realistic? That’s where the real debate lies.
3. The robotaxi market isn’t a wild idea anymore — but Tesla’s lead is questionable
To be fair, autonomy is progressing — Waymo’s already offering rides in multiple cities, Cruise had a good run before safety incidents, and now you’ve got China pushing full steam with players like Baidu and Pony.ai.
Tesla’s approach (vision-based, no LIDAR, no HD maps) is unique but controversial.
Cathie still believes Tesla will be the dominant robotaxi platform by 2029. She points to their massive data advantage (millions of cars collecting driving data daily), tight hardware-software integration, and Elon’s own confidence in FSD v12.
But again — this is the bet. If autonomy doesn’t materialize the way she expects, $2,600/share becomes pure fantasy.
4. She still rates Tesla ahead of BYD, despite the headlines
Yes, BYD overtook Tesla in global EV volume in Q4 2024. That made waves.
Cathie acknowledged that BYD’s cars are “fabulous,” but still believes Tesla beats them on range and power per dollar. More importantly, she says BYD isn’t even trying in autonomy yet — and that’s where she thinks Tesla pulls ahead long-term.
Her focus is not just EV domination, but who wins the autonomy+AI game in mobility.
5. Elon Musk is all-in too — he’s telling employees to hold their stock
Internally at Tesla, Elon recently told employees to “hang onto your stock” because of what’s coming in the next few years. He reiterated that AI, robotics, and FSD will make Tesla far more than a car company.
And we’ve seen this before: when Elon gets focused, we usually see aggressive execution (sometimes chaotic, but undeniably effective).
So what’s the takeaway for us as investors?
Personally, I think Cathie’s unwavering conviction in Tesla is fascinating. It’s easy to dismiss her as a hype investor, but ARK’s long-term bets do follow a structured model (even if it’s optimistic as hell).
Here’s how I see it:
If you believe Tesla will solve autonomy and build out a global robotaxi network, then it’s grossly undervalued.
If you believe FSD will remain stuck in regulatory and technical limbo, Tesla’s current ~$550B valuation might already be pricing in most of its EV potential.
And if you believe Elon’s distractions (politics, X, Neuralink, etc.) will hurt execution, it’s a whole different ball game.
But love or hate her, Cathie’s clarity is rare. She’s not flip-flopping. She’s not hedging. She’s going all in.
Would love to hear how others are playing this:
Are you still holding Tesla long-term?
Do you think robotaxis will become real (and profitable) within 5 years?
Is this ARK thesis legit or just another gamble?
Let’s talk.
Sources: CNBC, Bloomberg, MarketWatch, ARK Invest, Tesla internal comms
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